Sunday, 18 March 2012

Triple witching is over...what now in Greece?

Another week in the greek market with a sideways movement. The medium term view with the inverted head and shoulders pattern still has good possibilities to come true. The general index has to overcome the green neckline and the absense of an impulsive wave still makes me wait on the sidelines and ready to get in this market. Better safe than sorry. The General index still resides above the 61.8% area. I hope it is gathering power for a move higher.

One of the major barometer of the greek stock market is National Bank of Greece. Here too we can see the sideways movement of the last week and no clear upward impulsive wave. There is another scenario (aqua coloured) that is seeing significant lower prices. Again volume remains low relative to the Jan-Feb rise and that adds to the scenario that supports we are in a correction to that move and that we have another up leg as the one in the first two months of the year. Again here I stay on the sidelines ready to enter as soon as I see an impulsive wave up. The fact that NBG stays above 50% retracement from January lows, may support the aqua scenario and give a lower low towards the 61.8% retracement near 2€. The yellow scenario to hold we must see this stock rising this week above 2.71€.

A stock that caught my eye was INLOT. Pitchfork support has made the stock bounce on Friday. It has popped out of the short term downward sloping channel and for the stock to continue towards the mid-pitchfork resistance at 0.7350 it must not reenter the downward sloping channel. Next resistance area is 0.91. If that area is broken upwards with increased volume we may see INLOT perform like the banking sector at the first two months of the year. 

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  1. Hi Alex
    Could be a significant reversal in AUD & other risk markets here.
    what do you think the chances of Greece 'officially' defaulting tomorrow?

  2. Hi DarkestKnight, I believe that the reversals are of a minor degree as 4th waves. So expect markets to see new highs. USD looks weak to me. EURUSD still holds 1,2975 and USDJPY has broken down. AUDUSD may see lower levels but it must move in an impulsive way first.

    what makes you believe that greece will officialy default specifically tomorrow and not another day? I don't believe it though.

  3. Greece is not going to default...The big european bosses wont let her default....not yet at least. Maybe in a year.

  4. I thought March 20 was a big date , $14 billion due in payments by Greece. how much longer can they keep the game going?
    gonna happen one day- why not now?

  5. what payments? I know that the auction for the CDS will be today or maybe tomorrow, but I don't know anything for a 14 billion payment. I thing this was to happen before the haircut (PSI) and the CACs activation.

  6. maybe I'm not up to date..