Saturday, 29 September 2012

AAPL and FB update

 After the announcement of the new iPhone 5, AAPL has managed to climb above 700$. At that time, when the stock price was around 660$ we issued an intraday update targeting at least 690$. Members took profit of at least 30$ when AAPL broke support levels. Now we find this stock near support levels once again, only this time if support does not hold, then a short position could be very profitable. APPLE is still trading inside the longer term upward channel as depicted in the chart above. Support levels from the channel and previous bottom price levels are found in the area of 655-640$. A clean break of that support will open the way for a much bigger correction. This could prove another good opportunity to enter this stock, as stop levels are close by. If you feel comfortable with some extra risk you could also sell short if support levels are broken. Concluding we see another opportunity at these levels for a buy in AAPL, but investors must be ready to pull the trigger and get out of their positions if prices break support levels.

We come back to Facebook after a long time. Facebook seems that it has made 5 waves up from 17,55$ to 23,37$. A 3 wave correction has ended at 19,80$ and it seems that is heading towards 24-25$ at least. This move could just be a 3 wave upward correction in response to the decline from 33,45$ to 17,55$. Nevertheless with a stop at 19.80$ investors could profit from a possible upward continuation towards 24-25$.

Once again, thank you for reading my posts.

Friday, 28 September 2012

S&P finishes wave C

Our most possible wave count regarding S&P is depicted in the chart we post today. It is most possible that this index is finishing the corrective wave C and most probable bottom level is the 61,8% retracement at 1426. This area will provide a good bounce back upwards for S&P. I believe the correction will end here. If further downward movement breaks those level, bulls should start to worry about the longer term trend. The last stand will be at 1397, but any move close to that level will increase the chances of a break of 1397. All in all, we stated many times before the sharp decline that bulls should be very cautious of an impeding turn around. Now it is time for bulls to feel more comfortable around the 1725 support level. The pattern of the decline could very well be corrective and soon if not already finished. Another leg up I expect to follow.....

Thank you for reading my thoughts.........

Thursday, 27 September 2012

EURUSD breaking downward trendline

EURUSD is showing signs of trend reversal. It has first found support at the upward green trend line and is now breaking the red downward sloping trend line. The structure of the decline looks corrective as the overlapping pattern is not a characteristic of impulsive waves.

Our most possible path to follow now is upwards towards 1,30 at first. The pair has just moved above the resistance  and must stay above it in order for the upward move to continue. The rise from 1,2829 lows looks impulsive and this could develop into something bigger if we look at the bigger picture as depicted on the first chart. A pull back towards 1,2870-90 could be possible if the first upward wave has finished at 1,2928.

As always the structure of each move is important to determine whether it is corrective or impulsive.

Concluding, today we may have seen an important bottom in EURUSD. We are in favour of long positions with risk limited to today's low.

Tuesday, 25 September 2012

Has S&P topped?

In several previous posts I suggested that bulls should be very cautious with their positions. Premium service members were alerted to cover long positions on time. The market was unable to overcome 1467 and naturally retested the 1452-50 support. The index could still have a little lower levels to go, but all in all our view is that this downward move is still corrective. This corrective wave could end near or at the 61.8% retracement. My view is that it is going to end between 1435-1426. If 1426 is broken then this would be an sign of further weakness. Strength on the other hand will be signalled if the market breaks the red dotted downward sloping trend line that we back tested today. 1397 level is very important as far as the medium and longer term trend, but at this point I think the chances of that level being broken are very slim. 

QE3 enthusiasm is finally settling down and investors who bought due to the announcement are now selling with anxiety. The market as always has discounted the announcement. 

Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts.

EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD has been falling steadily from 1,3170 and trades below the red downward sloping trendline. The decline looks corrective due to the overlapping of the waves after a clear impulsive upward move. 1,2950 is important short term trend resistance as the previous 1 hour high and the downward sloping trendline meet. 

Our view is that a break of that resistance level might start a new strong upward move with target above 1,32. However at first the pair should show impulsive characteristics in any upward move and secondly it must be strong enough to break 1,2950 and 1,3050 resistances for a new high to be achieved.

For more help with forex trading don't hesitate to contact me.

Gold is correcting sideways, uptrend to resume

Since it hit 1780$ area, gold has been making 30 dollar up and down swings.....From 1780$ to 1755$ and then back up to 1790$ and then back to 1760$. A triple bottom formation has been noticed in the 1 hour chart. Our view is that with that level as a stop reverse, gold could rally above 1800$ soon. The movement of the last few days is clearly corrective and sideways. Gold is just making a pause after the 1630-1780 rally. The longer term bullish view remains unchanged. In the short term with 1750$ as  a stop, investors could profit from a move with 1800$ minimum target.

Thank you for taking the time to read my post.

Monday, 24 September 2012

AAPL opportunity to buy or has it topped?

AAPL falls today in premarket by 2% or 14$ because sales of iPhone 5s have reached 5million. Despite that big number, expectations were higher and that is  why the stock is falling in pre market. The longer term trend channel as shown on the chart still is valid and prices are well within its boundaries. Support is initially found at 680$( 50% retracement from 657$ and then at 657$ (mid-september low). Very strong support of the rising trend channel is found at 650-640$ level. There is  a gap found at 670$ and the 61,8% retracement is at 672$. If those supports are broken, then the entire bullish trend will be at danger. Until then, a correction is possible at the mentioned support levels and needed in order to relief overbought status. 

The decline will also show us through its pattern, if this decline is impulsive. Usuall impulsive waves don't start with gaps and that is another reasong why we are more bullish than bearish.

Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts.

Sunday, 23 September 2012

S&P analysis

 S&P still has not managed to make a new high in order to fulfil our wave count. However we have to notice two things. The blue upward trend line that was broken has now been back tested. If S&P made a truncated 5th wave (weakness sign), then it could break 1449.98 and push lower towards 1435-25. However we can find a bullish sign also in this move. S&P has also back tested the downward sloping red trend line that connects 1474 with 1465. If the index does not break below 1449.98 (could be used as a stop level), it could make another extension higher towards new highs. Time will tell and we will adjust our counts. I mentioned many times before in this blog that bulls should be extra cautious at these levels and keep stop orders tight.

Another worrying sign in S&P can be seen at the weekly chart I posted below. Each rally after the signal (crossing of 20 EMA) is smaller and smaller. The first rally from March 2009 to May 2010 was nearly a 42% rise. From September of 2010 to May of 2011, the rise was nearly 23%. From December 2011 to April of 2012 the rise was nearly 15%. The latest rise from 1350 level in June is just under 10%.
The market is either loosing power and will make a deep correction or is in the start of a huge rally towards all time highs. Many believe that this upward move is purely the result of market intervention from the FED and that markets will collapse under deflationary pressures. This scenario is getting more and more followers by the day, as fears regarding european debt crisis, chinese growth fears and the sustainability of US debt, all create an explosive and very pessimistic view of the future. I choose to be more optimistic, however the market will eventually show us its true intentions.

Thank you for reading my thoughts.

Friday, 21 September 2012

MSFT breaking resistance

In a previous post here in this blog, I posted an analysis for Microsoft as I thought at that time it was bullish with a good risk return relationship. Then the price of the stock was at 31$ and yesterday it closed at 31.45$. Target still remains 32,50$ where previous important highs are going to be retested. My view on this stock is still bullish as long as it stays above 30.90$. I think MSFT will accelerate towards 32.50$ where it is going to make a pause. 28$ is my longer term stop for my position, whereas 30.90$ is my short term stop. Depending on your risk profile you could choose between those two. Longer term target of course is much higher than 32.50, towards 42$. 

Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts.

Thursday, 20 September 2012

S&P intraday update

S&P undergoes a deeper than expected correction as wave 4. This is our favorite scenario. The decline looks now more as a 3 wave correction even at the 1 hour chart. S&P has found support at  the lower keltner channel and needs to break above 1465 (intermediate high) in order to accelerate towards higher highs and confirm that the decline was corrective. The only setback in my wave count in my opinion is that wave ((iv)) is much larger in time than wave ((ii)). I will have to rethink alternative wave counts that would suit this upward move from 1396 better.

Concluding we are still bullish and we target 1480-90 as potential end of this uptrend. As mentioned in previous posts, bulls should be very cautious.

Tuesday, 18 September 2012

GOLD longer term bullish trend unchanged

GOLD is pulling back after reaching 1785$ last week. Our view has been bullish for quite some time, but as mentioned many times the last couple of days, it is time for bulls to be more cautious than ever. Our longer term view has not changed, but it seems like a bigger correction could be imminent. The upward trending channel from 1640$ is still intact until 1750$ is broken. The market however could decline in a corrective pattern even towards 1740-20$, but it is expected that it will resume upwards to test 1900$.

Sunday, 16 September 2012

Can S&P go higher?

After such a noteworthy and extremely volatile week, now that the QE3 hype has passed, will the rise in S&P continue or has the market discounted this monetary action by the FED into prices already. In one word.....yes....the market can still go higher. The downward move on Friday from 1474 to 1461 is clearly corrective due to the overlapping pattern of the movement. It is most probable that a new high towards 1480-90 will be made as the final wave of the move that started from 1396.56 low. Resistance at 1468 if broken will give power to the market to make a new high. The market is moving downwards in the blue channel and needs to break out of it to start the final upward move.

In the chart above you can see my count from 1396.56. I feel that it is suitable for the 5th wave to be counted as an extension. There are other alternative counts that are much more bullish, but I suspect that the QE3 effect will have to fade out a bit and the market to make a correction towards 1440-50 after the expected new high. Long positions at this point should be protected against a sharp pull back. I don't think the pull back will change the whole upward trend, but it will give bears something to expect and be happy about. Concluding, we are still bullish biased with short term target towards 1480 but also have to be cautious for any pull back towards 1440-50. 

Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts.

Thursday, 13 September 2012

Daily update in S&P

 Our pitchforks both in the daily and weekly chart have prices supported for a move higher. In the short term, S&P support lies at 1420 area whereas intermediate support at 1397. The daily rising pattern in S&P from 1309 could develop to an impulsive move if we count those overlapping waves as 1-2s. This would imply a very bullish scenario with targets above 1500. If this move however is not impulsive but corrective, prices will be expected to fall hard  in the near future. I only see this as an alternative scenario with low chances, although increased pessimism has increased the followers and supporters of this alternative.
In the weekly chart, S&P has found support near the lower pitchfork support line and is crawling on top of it. My experience suggests that a sharp rise will follow if support levels continue to be held. Support areas at the weekly level, are found at 1350 level. At this point I remain positively biased towards 1450 as I have for the last 3 months.

Thank you for taking the time to read my post.

Wednesday, 12 September 2012

AAPL and AMD opportunities to profit

 AAPL is trying to make a break of 665$ resistance during the new iPhone 5 presentation. I think it can visit 677$ as a third time to retest the 680$ area. Live updates like this one are available only to members and my clients but wanted everyone to take a look at my work during US market hours. I would use 655$ support as a stop as this upward turn in AAPL maybe the start of a new rise towards 700$. Concluding  I'm upward biased with 655$ my stop level and target at least 677$. Confirmation of my view is to break 669$.

On the other hand AMD is a stock not so popular as AAPL but might have a very worthwhile price movement soon. The sideways overlapping move is clearly corrective after an impulsive move from under 2$ to above 10$. Prices have bounced right up when they touched my support line connecting 2 important lows. I believe that a bottom might be in place and that it is time for this stock to turn again upwards. One can wait for 5 waves upwards to complete and then enter, or can enter now with a stop near 3,40$ lows. I believe that if this stop is not hit, the stock could reach 4,30$ soon and start a new impulsive upward move.

Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts. For any question don't hesitate to contact me.

Tuesday, 11 September 2012

S&P correcting, target still remains 1450-60

S&P is in a correction pattern after having made a top at 1438. This is most probably a wave 4. This means that it can still make a final upward move towards 1450-60 as part of the 5th wave of the impulsive move that started at 1397. 1424 is support for this 4th wave and during premarket the futures made  a low at that area. This does not mean that it canot be retested during normal trading hours. Important intermediate support still is the 1397 area where this impulsive move started. Stop for long positions should be that area. There is a small possibility that the impulsive move from 1397 has ended and that we are now in a wave 2 correction that could reach 1420-15. Concluding we are biased towards 1450.

Thank you for taking the time to read my post.

Sunday, 9 September 2012

GOLD and SILVER update

 Gold has almost reached our July target of 1750$. Using elliott waves, this could continue towards 1900$ if support is not broken. Short term support levels are 1690$ and 1650$. Longer term trend support is found at 1600$. Our view is bullish with new highs as targets.
Silver followed gold's rally and made a decisive break of its 32$ resistance. Since it very closely related to movements in gold, our view here could not be much different. Bullish view with longer term targets near the 40-42$ area at least if not a new high. Support is found just below 32$. Our bullish view will be endangered if silver moves below 28$. 

Κυματική ανάλυση στον Γενικό Δείκτη του Χρηματιστηρίου Αθηνών.

Μετά από μία ταραχώδη και γεμάτη νέα και ανακοινώσεις εβδομάδα, βρίσκουμε τον ΓΔ να κλείνει σε νέα υψηλά στις 693 μονάδες. Το κλίμα δεν έχει αλλάξει τελείως αλλά  τουλάχιστον δεν βλέπουμε μία αγορά ευάλωτη στους πωλητές με ανυπαρξία αγοραστών. Υπάρχει ένα κλίμα αισιοδοξίας για τις 750 μονάδες όπου εκεί θα δοκιμαστούμε με πολύ δυνατές αντιστάσεις. Κυματικά ο ΓΔ έχει τελειώσει 3 κύματα. Το πιο πιθανό σενάριο μας βάζει στο κύμα 4 το οποίο μπορεί να μας οδηγήσει από τις 800 μέχρι τις 1000 μονάδες. Το αισιόδοξο σενάριο μας βάζει στο ξεκίνημα ενός νέου ανοδικού κύκλου έχοντας αφήσει πίσω μας 3 διορθωτικά κύματα (Α-Β-C). Να σημειώσουμε ότι η αγορά πρώτη θα κινηθεί ανοδικά και μετά θα έρθουν τα ‘θετικά’ νέα για να μας σπρώξουν ψηλότερα και να δικαιολογήσουν μία μεγάλη άνοδο.

Περνώντας σε πιο τεχνικά θέματα που μπορούν να μας βοηθήσουν στις καθημερινές συναλλαγές, εστιάζουμε στο πιο κοντινό γράφημα που ακολουθεί.
Το παραπάνω γράφημα είχαμε ξαναδημοσιεύσει με την κίτρινη μέτρηση να επιβεβαιώνει την ανοδική τάση της αγοράς. Αφού είδαμε 5 ανοδικά κύματα, ακολούθησε η αναμενόμενη διόρθωση σε 3 κύματα στην περιοχή του προηγούμενου 4ου κύματος. Η συνέχεια αν και ανοδική με νέα υψηλά στον δείκτη, δεν έχει την δυναμική και την ανοδική κλίση που αρμόζει σε ένα 3ο κύμα. Σίγουρα η άνοδος αυτή μοιάζει πολύ με κινητήρια, αλλά όχι ενός 3ου κύματος. Αυτό μας βάζει σε σκέψεις ότι το αισιόδοξο σενάριο είναι και το 2ο σε πιθανότητα να συμβεί. Παρόλα αυτά για κάποιον long στην αγορά αυτή μία διάσπαση της μπλε στήριξης (628 μονάδες) θα ήταν ένα σημάδι για λήψη μέτρων προστασίας των θέσεων.

Ας  δούμε όμως πιο προσεκτικά δύο μετοχές που είναι στο επίκεντρο και καθορίζουν πάρα πολλές φορές την τάση. Τόσο η ALPHA BANK όσο και η ΕΘΝΙΚΗ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΑ της ΕΛΛΑΔΟΣ

Η ALPHA BANK όπως βλέπετε στο παρακάτω διάγραμμα, έχει δύο πολύ πιθανά σενάρια που θα ξεκαθαρίσουν πολύ σύντομα. Είτε βρίσκεται σε ένα πλάγιο τρίγωνο με αντίσταση το 1,5€ - 1,6€. Είτε έχει κάνει το άσπρο κινητήριο ανοδικό κύμα 1, την διόρθωση 2, και τώρα έχει ξεκινήσει ενός μικρότερου βαθμού ανοδική κίνηση (i-ii). Για να επιβεβαιωθεί ότι η ανοδική κίνηση είναι κινητήρια, πρέπει η άνοδος να γίνει με πιο απότομη κλίση απ’ότι μέχρι τώρα και να διασπαστεί η αντίσταση στο 1,5€ και μετά στα 2€. Ένα επιπλέον στοιχείο υπέρ του ανοδικού σενάριου είναι ο όγκος συναλλαγών στην άνοδο (μεγαλύερος) σε σχέση με την πλάγια κίνηση των τελευταίων μηνών(όλο και μικρότερος).

Η τεχνική εικόνα δεν είναι πολύ διαφορετική στην ΕΘΝΙΚΗ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΑ. Σημεία στήριξης όπως το 1,35€ και 1,10€ εννοείται ότι πρέπει να διαφυλαχθούν αλλιώς βάζουν σε κίνδυνο την ανοδική συνέχιση της κίνησης. Διάσπαση της αντίστασης στο 1,70€ θα ανοίξει το δρόμο προς το 2,4€.