Monday, 30 April 2012

Modest pullback or slow start of a new downmove??

 S&P and DOW pulled back lower today without spreading any concern among bulls. On the other hand bears were happy to see the market turn downwards after an extensive rise from the double bottom of 1358.

It is too soon to tell if this decline is part of a correction or an new impulsive move that will give new highs. I believe the bullish scenario has more chances of survival. DOW looks stronger and its futures downward move display a corrective rather than an impulsive form. Both indices came close but did not test Fridays low.

If someone shorted the market when I mentioned in the premarket that a short term top is in (like me), I would usd Fridays high as a stop. If this move is corrective we probably ended wave A, wave B and C will follow (lower) towards 1380. If this is the start of bigger impulsive move downwards, then all is in place. Time will tell.

PS. Tomorrow is something like the US Labor Day for Greece and I will not make another post since I 'll be at the beach trying to take my first swim of this summer. I might post a small update later during the US session if things look interesting.

S&P top is in...

...if this is a wave 2 or B, the top is in. It has retraced 76% from April 2 top to April 10 bottom. The index has found resistance in my long term middle pitchfork line. As mentioned some time ago this was my target of counter move. Even if we are in an impulsive wave to new highs, I expect the market at least to pause and pull back a bit. The way it will pull back will give us more info which direction is the impulse and which is the correction.

Friday, 27 April 2012

S&P and DOW bullish alternative becomes stronger!

One of the blog visitors sent me an e-mail asking if I could post an analysis for S&P again today. So here we are at 1400ish after our previous post mentioned that if 1357 doesn't break soon, 1390-1410 was to be seen. 

The chart depicts my possible wave scenarios for this index. We could very well be in the end of a C wave. In either scenario we have 5 waves up from 1358. The way the index will pull back will make the picture clearer to us. An impulsive move with a swift break of 1386 will give bears more chances. A consolidation with overlapping waves declining to 61,8% max (1376 cash) will give more chances to bulls and new highs. If the market only pauses and continues to make new highs, this would be a bullish indication. All scenarios are possible with the bullish ones marginally having more chances until this moment. Don't forget that Europe needs a move upwards (wave 2)

DOW on the other hand has found support at the lower pitchfork line and is going to test its highs. 12845 is support that bulls don't want to be broken. This index looks much more bullish than S&P and in order for bears to have more chances, this index needs to turn down today.

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Thursday, 26 April 2012

CAC bearish...GBP bullish

 A longer term chart of CAC is my choice for posting today. DAX and Eurostoxx are in the same category and wave level as with CAC. The index has finished 5 waves down from March highs. Taking into consideration the whole move from September, the form does not look impulsive. Italy and Spain have a much worse technical and wave picture. So will US follow Europe or will it help european indices recover????

GBPUSD as posted some time ago looked  bullish to me and I just renewed the wave counts I believe are most probable in this pair.

AAPL 3 waves ended?

Ok I admit I'm an APPLE fan and hopefully trading this stock will buy me the new iPhone 5!!! This stock might have finished its correction. It has made 3 clear waves from its highs and after beating earnings estimates it jumped 10% threatening the B wave high. If that point is broken upwards bulls will have increased chances that the uptrend is back on track. The only negative characteristic of this correction is TIME. The correction was too short in time relative to the lenghty rise. However we should take under serious consideration the possibility that this upward thrust was wave B and the 3 wave decline from the highs was only wave A. Time will tell. Bearish with 620 area  highs stop.

Wednesday, 25 April 2012

EURUSD-DAX-S&P..... waiting for the FED-WAVE 2?

DAX as mentioned yesterday in twitter most probably finished 5 waves down. This is a bearish developement for the medium term. Short term targets are around 6800 up to 6950. Of course tonight we will be looking towards the other side of the Atlantic and the FED.
 EURUSD as mentioned yesterday holds support and has given me a slight bullish signal. As long as it holds above 1,31 and most important 1,30 it can start a big move upwards.
S&P again did not break support in order to accelerate towards 1340. This could be another smaller degree 1-2 wave, but I think the correction is more complicated and will try and break resistance at 1385 and try to recapture 1400. AAPL results yesterday have a positive impact in futures across all markets. However the last few sessions the market opens higher in premarket and the closes lower. I wil be waiting to see how it will react to FED tonight. This could give the market enough fuel to rise to 1400 or push it to new lows from early april.

Tuesday, 24 April 2012

Greek update....still out of the market

Greek FTASE20 continues to slide downwards maybe towards 260 (76% retracement area). I see pressures to continue to push lower and buyers on stand by mode. I remain neutral if not bearish. If you like risk you short this market. If you are not very risk tolerant then you stay on the side and wait to enter long positions when the market will show some real signals. The lower yellow trend line is my target for the index. If the upper yellow line is broken I believe we can see a good rally.

PS. To all my blog visitors, 

thank you for visting my blog and I would really appreciate it if you could post your opinion about the blog and what would you like to change in the blog if there is something you don't like. I would be gratefull if you could help increase participation and registered followers. Supporting me this way and commenting on the posts will help me continue posting. Thank you all.

GOLD and EURUSD moving sideways...not for long

 I see gold moving sideways below support and I think I big down move will soon come if it stays below 1670$. I'm neutral and slightly bearish.

EURUSD as mentioned yesterday in twitter was testing support as can be seen it back tested the upper pitchfork resistance. It will either accelerate upwards above 1,3240 or it will test once again the green support line. I'm bullish in this pair as long as it holds 1,31 and 1.30.

S&P will break or will complicate!

As mentioned in last weeks posts a big move down was expected in S&P. From 1390 cash it visited the April 10th low at 1358 (32 points...not a bad call!!). The different wave scenarios are depicted in the chart. Since it didn't break the low yesterday I believe it has a last chance to break today or tommorrow. If the level is not broken then we could see a more complex correction even towards 1410.  A close below 1365 will reinforce downward pressures. I don't see new highs yet due to the 3 wave rise from the April 10 lows.

If you would like another index (US or european) analysed please post a comment. If you want to contact me send e-mail to

Monday, 23 April 2012

DAX 5 waves down

 DAX downward channel is ready to complete all 5 waves. Todays open is pushing towards the lows (now at 6620). This in my opinion is the last wave down before an upward correction. However the fact that we see 5 waves down implies 5 more after a correction. So things remain bearish here. EURUSD is under pressure and the other european indices are falling sharply too. 

AAPL is a stock that will influence greatly NASDAQ and thus the whole market. As expected a new low was made to fulfill the minimum requirement of a 3 wave correction. However my feeling is that it will correct even lower.

Friday, 20 April 2012


S&P closed above support and could be forming 1-2s with the 3rd wave on its way. The first sign of this scenario playing out would be to break yesterdays high and then stay above 1390. My view is that this upward move is likely corrective and we will see lower than 1360. I believe the market is biased towards 1340.

AAPL movement below 600 was a negative sign for my as mentioned in twitter. The most bullish scenario for me sees the stock pause near 550-530$ as an A-B-C. It bounced at 38% retracement and it may now go to 50-61,8%. I'm neutral for the time being.

EURUSD still moves sideways. I'm bullish as long as this stays above 1.30. If this level is broken then we could see 1,25.

GBPUSD on the other hand looks more bullish. This is an updated older chart I posted here. I'm bullish as long as it stays above my 55 and 200 MA.

Thursday, 19 April 2012

S&P will soon make a big move

 Good day to all. S&P rises with overlapping wave formation from last weeks lows. I believe this move can end near the pitchfork resistance and a new move towards 1340 to start. Intraday levels of 1380 spot and 1362 are important. To achieve 1340 these levels should break impulsively. Until then we can first see 1400. European auctions today could affect and give thrust to the markets either way. The bullish scenario involves a couple of 1-2s and this index will have to start a thrust of a 3rd wave above 1400-1410. Long stops should be the same levels as mentioned above.

Greek FTASE20 may have made an impulsive move upwards with increased volume but we have to be cautious. Stars in my volume chart point that something similar happened a month ago but the market did not manage to continue its rise. What if this rise is again corrective? Then new lows will be seen soon. That is why entering long near stops and in down days is preferred and not when market rallies. I'm still confident that we are near an intermediate term bottom or in the process of finishing this bottom in greek stocks. I personally try to enter only 1/4 of my cash near stops or supports and increase position if resistances are taken.

Wednesday, 18 April 2012

Bearish view in danger or still correcting?

Yesterdays rally was not expected by many but as I mentioned in my morning report I tried to pick a bottom and entered long at the time of the post(ES_F @1361). However I still believe that it can come back down towards 1340 area. The index has made 3 waves up until now. For this move to be impulsive the market should accelerate much higher above 1400 soon and eventually make new highs. A more complex correction would delay this scenario. This means that we might be in wave B and another down leg is expected. I'm still long and confused as to what should I do. The most safe choice would be to hold my longs and reverse if the market moves below yesterdays lows. I could also buy some puts to cover my long position in case wave C down towards 1340 comes.

Tuesday, 17 April 2012

S&P looking lower....

 S&P futures continue to trade in downward sloping channel...I favor a test of the lows and the bottom to be in the area of 1340 (previous 4th?!!). If channel is broken upwards impulsively and a sequence of higher highs and higher lows is made, then I would consider long positions. Bottom picking around these levels with a stop at last lows is also considered by me right now.

Re-emerging fears for the european debt crisis has pushed MIB and IBEX to sharp declines. IBEX is testing 2009 lows but still inside downward channel may find support near 7000. MIB key support are the lows at 13600 area. However the market could have very well bottomed last Friday.

 IBEX near support could also have bottomed. Decline from 2009 highs doesn't look impulsive to me.

Tuesday, 10 April 2012

Quick update:S&P will test 1370 soon

S&P yesterday did leave bulls with some chances that the correction is over. For me it was a chance to sell again. I see 1370 being tested soon. If broken next support 1350-40 (previous 4th?). AAPL is working nicely as a hedging tool to my shorts. So as long as it holds above 600 I will be buying the dips with a target of 700 at least. 
Greek banks rallied around 25-30% today. Rising volume and rising prices. Last week's lows should hold and never break again until February highs are taken first(If we are in a C wave). So any correction could be a buy opportunity or for more aggressive investors you should have entered today and hold your positions until the lows are broken. 

Sorry for the absence of charts but I'm away on vacation and I just have a glimpse on what is going on and only have time to manage my clients. Next week I will be back in the office and have more time to analyse some charts for you. For now I try to enjoy my vacation taking some profit too. Have a nice week to all and happy easter.

Saturday, 7 April 2012

S&P to fall even more.....or is it a buy opportunity?

Short update:
Fridays non farm payrolls were disapponting. S&P futures  broke down and fell below recent lows and for the first time for some time now we can observe lower lows and lower highs. However we will have to wait for the market to open on Monday and see a confirmation of the index to break and close under 1390. European debt yields are rising once again and the fear from europe regarding the debt crisis is coming to surface again. The wave scenarios are still not clear yet but bulls still have chances and won't give up without a fight. We could still be in a 2nd wave of the 5th or a larger 4th wave if 1340 is broken. However bears have their chances too if this is already the top they were expecting. Either way I would sell every pullback or any break down of prices with a stop at the previous high. If the highs are broken the market according to my wave analysis will provide with a great thrust upwards that could compensate any loss from shorting this market. If you feel this is just another dip and a buy opportunity I would suggest buying only after seeing 5 waves up or as close to 1340 as possible. The next few sessions will provide us with more info in order to eliminate some wave scenarios and icrease chances in other ones. Will try to update accordingly.

Thursday, 5 April 2012

DOW, S&P in critical juncture

DOW daily chart shows that sideways correction must have ended. The same must hold for S&P. Prices have stalled and made sideways movements that imply correction. However we must also take under serious consideration the possibility of a larger correction. 

Dow @ 13000 and S&P @ 1385 are my important supports.  A daily close below those levels will mean a larger correction is at hand at least. Dow would test 12700 and S&P 1340. Tomorrow we have important numbers being announced (Unemployment rate and Non-farm payrolls).

So what strategy should be followed? I personally bought puts with 1340 strike and I'm long cfds with close by stops. I'm long in AAPL, but sold half my position at 628 and have a stop at 597$.  If this stock breaks my support levels then I would look to buy it back below or near 550$. Friday will probably be important as to what the market will do. I think momentum will be built after the macro announcements. I favor long trades but I will be prepared for a break of support levels. European indices and EURUSD look much weaker than the american indices and have started to decline more than S&P. This could be a clue to what can follow. 

 Gold has also broken support and move below the 200MA and can move towards the lower green channel as long as it is below 1680-1700. It can be at the start of a move downwards towards 1500.

PS. I will come back with regular updates with charts at the 17th. I will be away on vacation due to Easter and will be watching the markets as I think we are in a critical juncture. Will try and update when I see something worth noting via twitter, or for larger updates I may post something in the blog but with no charts. So if you want to keep in touch via twitter, you can follow me @alexanderYf or you can just visit the blog and read my twitts in the widget at the side of the blog. See you all in a few days...

Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Greek FTASE20 bullish and bearish thoughts.

Market continues to decline. In the chart you can see the 1 less bullish scenario and one bearish scenario at play. However even if the  market is moving impulsively downwards in a 3rd wave (of the 5th probably), then why is volume declining? Once again I will say that I give more chances to the bullish scenarios but I will enter this market only when I'll see increased volume with rising prices and impulsive moves  upwards.

Triangle in DJI....EURUSD in trouble...vix gets tested

 Dow jones has a clearer sideways movement than S&P and I wanted to depict it. Probably near its end at the area of 13100. I expect the market to break to new highs in the next 3-5 sessions. If triangle broken downwards, 12900 and lower pitchfork support should be last resort for bulls. The form of the decline still does not imply a large downward move. Short term trend sideways, intermediate up.

 EURUSD after FOMC minutes, declined sharply. As I mentioned in twitter the hourly candle yesterday destroyed the chances any bull had regarding a pullback. The pair is back under the upper pitchfork and under the short term upward trend line. If the pair doesn't regain levels above soon, it will test 1,3050. I also mentioned yesterday that since eurusd doesn't break 1,3390 after going up there so many times, it will eventually break down.

VIX looks like it is going to test resistance at 17-18level. If 19 is broken upwards and then if 21 is broken at a daily close basis, then we could be seeing S&P test 1360 or lower.

Tuesday, 3 April 2012

S&P targets 1500

S&P holds its support and moves higher. The wave structure could be labeled as in the process of an extended 5th (?) wave. Targets for completion come near 1500. Short term wave structure makes me believe that a 3rd wave is near. Support of 1400 and 1390-85 are of major importance.

EURUSD is moving sideways between 1,3380-1,3270. Still above the upper pitchfork resistance, and above the short term trend line that starts from 1,30 area. This is bullish signs for me. A clean break and a 2hour close above 1,3390 will push the pair towards 1,35 imho at least.

Monday, 2 April 2012

S&P gathers fuel for a move higher.

My view in s&p as mentined many times during this past month has an upward bias. Holding 1385 might push the index towards 1450. I give however more chances to a consolidation between 1410-1390 for a week and then a move towards 1500. If 1385 is broken then it can test 1340. If that is the case then it will take longer than a week for this correction to end. However this might be the most bearish scenario for me for now. After a correction towards 1340 the targets will move above 1500. Long exposure in this index is preferred near supports.