Tuesday, 27 November 2012

Why the Greek General Index is in wave 4?

Greek stocks reactions to the Eurogroup solution regarding Greek debt are mixed. Our view is that despite any short term uncertainty, Greek stocks are going to behave very volatile, until all the details are made clear regarding the solution announced. Our preferred view using elliott waves is that the Greek General Index has most probably finished wave 4 and has just started wave 5 upwards with 1000-1100 as target. There is also the possibility that the index is still inside wave 4 which is unfolding in a more complex pattern. Having connected wave 1 and 3, we drew a parallel line that connects wave 2 and the point were we believe wave 4 has ended. 

It is essential that the lower yellow trend line is being held. For bullish scenario to remain as our first choice, the General Index should not trade below 758 level. The most possible downward correction target from 850 level that we are currently in, is the 820 and 805 levels. 

If you need help trading Greek stocks or just want to talk about this market don't hesitate to contact me.

As always, thank you for taking the time to catch up on my thoughts.


  1. hi
    i would like to know your opinion about the wave analysis of Alpha Bank-Greek Market

    1. Niko there is no clear impulsive wave formation in ALPHA BANK using the daily candles. Apart from the 0,40-1,90 move, there is no clear 5 wave upward movement. This favors the bearish scenario that ALPHA BANK has finished 3 corrective waves up at 2,33. Keep in mind the negative characteristics of the greek market (decreased depth of buyers and sellers and market manipulation) and you cannot apply the elliott wave theory succesfully in single stocks. That is why I prefer analysing the General index instead.ALPHA BANK SUPPORT levels at 1,58 and 1,38.Resistance at 2,00-2,02.

  2. Replies
    1. niko send me an e-mail if you want to talk in more detail and you can also follow me on twitter.

      νικο στείλε μου μέιλ αν θες να τα πουμε πιο λεπτομερώς....