Tuesday, 13 November 2012

Greek General Index wave analysis

Greece has been on the spotlight and at the centre of negative publicity for some time now. Greek stocks however, from mid June have staged an upward movement worth of taking into serious consideration. The Athens General Index has risen in a 3 wave pattern from 471 to 910 level. Now at 770 level it is most probably forming a sideways triangle to complete wave 4 correction. A less probable wave count is that it only completing a simple a-b-c correction as part of wave 4. Therefore it is expected that a wave 5 towards new highs will follow. Many investors however believe that the 3 wave rise from 471 to 910 has been a correction and not part of a larger trend change process. They believe that new historic lows are to be expected combined with a possible credit event regarding Greece or a GRexit. 

This scenario is something that we feel is less possible as market sentiment is close to that belief. When market sentiment is close to extremes, prices always move the other way. Our preferred  view is that of a general upward trend change that is under way in Greek stocks. This scenario will be confirmed and supported after 5 waves from 471 low are completed.

Thank you for taking the time to read my post.

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