Tuesday, 20 November 2012

Greek stocks preparing for a rally or a crash?

Greece has been on the spotlight and at the centre of attention for some time now. Specially during this week, several matters regarding debt viability and the next tranche of aid are being discussed in the Eurogroup meeting. The recapitalisation terms of Greek banks together with the delay of the money aid, have been the causation for the steep decline from recent highs according to the media. Our view was expressed before all these 'announcements' that bulls should be cautious as a 4th wave was expected. All these are based on the 'good' scenario that trend has changed and the General Index is trying to complete 5 waves up from June lows. This does not mean that the 'bad' scenario has less chances. If the index doesn't complete the 5 waves up, then the chances for a trend reversal scenario will lose power. For the 'good' scenario to have increased chances, the General Index must be in the 4th wave that is unfolding like a triangle (a-b-c-d-e) or has already finished its correction (a-b-c). Important support is  depicted by the yellow trend line.

 Fans of the bearish  scenario are seeing this correction as part of wave 2 up. Wave 1 down was the decline from 910 to 754. This scenario might still have chances but the internal form of the decline is not as a clear impulsive move as we would want. Nevertheless we should take into consideration this alternative very seriously.

Concluding, trend remains sideways for the very short term. Above 844 level, 'good' scenario will gain points as the triangle scenario will be ruled out. If the market takes more time to move sideways then we confirm the triangle scenario. If prices break the yellow support, the 'bad' scenario will be gaining points and bears will be taking the upper hand.

Thank you for taking the time to read my new post.

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