Monday, 27 August 2012

S&P targets 1500

S&P despite the European debt crisis and many pessimistic reports from big investment banks, has managed to hold support and rally to new highs for the last 4 months. 1422 level was broken but not held. A quick correction towards 1400 may have given the index enough power to resume this upward move. Our simple EMA trigger method has been LONG since 1350. As mentioned at late July, many things would show that an imminent large decline is soon to come, but the market was not breaking any support. And if market is at its support, we do only one!! Volatility was high but staying above our trigger was making the bearish scenario weaker each day.

 I mentioned several times that after August 1st volatility would pick up and the market would start a new move. I was giving more chances to a decline, but since support levels held, the market had only one way to go. After a  the decline at 1354 low, where EMA stayed unbroken, market started a move to new highs. For me this move is not fake and the new highs are still to come. My view is that after breaking important highs like 1422 was, the market usually makes at least 50 points higher and not only a 10 point newer high. Stops were trigger at 1422 and after the correction to 1400 I think the market is ready to retest the 1420-30 area.

 In the 60m chart S&P has clearly made 3 waves downwards. A move above 1416 would confirm that the decline from 1426,68 is corrective. I expect the market to make a move towards 1470. Support lies at 1398 and 1390. At this point QE3 expectations are driving the market higher. Comments by officials, against such an action, would be the causation of a downward correction. For now chances are that we are heading higher above 1430.

Thank you for taking the time to read my posts.

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