Friday, 22 June 2012

S&P road ahead

 After  our successful call that the top was in at the 1360 area, it is now time to see what is next. Our most probable scenario is based that trend  changed in May downwards with 5 impulsive waves. This move took almost 2 months to unfold. The correction towards 61,8% retracement took less than 3 weeks. Although price level has been achieved, I believe it needs more time to correct wave I.
We start with the daily chart and we can clearly see 3 waves up at the 61,8% retracement. Our second best scenario sees wave II completed and we are starting wave III. 1300 cash is an important support that if broken will increase the probabilities of this scenario. My most possible scenario expects the market to move downwards for wave X and then again upwards for the last part of the correction above 1362. In this case 1300 should hold in my opinion. But this is not a necessary rule of EWT.  My least probable scenario is bullish with a second lower degree impulse wave starting at 1305. This is the blue scenario as depicted in the intraday chart. For this scenario to hold 1305 should hold as it is the start of the lower degree wave i.  
Thank you for taking the time to read this post.

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