Monday, 25 June 2012

EURUSD upward correction is over....

 EURUSD after a 3 week upward move from 1,2287 has reached our previously posted targets above 1,27. On the daily chart EUR/USD has made an overlapping upward move from June lows. It is very difficult to see this move as an impulsive one, that is why we mentioned many times that bears should be ready to pull the trigger once again. The pair didn't manage to break above the upper pitchfork resistance and has broken down more than 00 pips in 2 sessions. Additionally the daily chart has also broken the green upward support line that follows the move from June lows.
Taking a closer look at the 4hour chart, we see the same characteristics as in the daily chart. The upward move from june lows is not impulsive and the pair has broken the green support line. However we might find support near 1,2460-80 levels as the middle pitchfork support lies there. The pair might have a final upward move to retest the upper pitchfork resistance  near last weeks highs, but any bullish strength is getting weaker and weaker. Bears will regain control of the trend very soon with targets below June lows.


  1. I agree with your analysis but there's still room for a move to 1,2785 (50,0 retracement from 1,3280 highs). Actually there is the resistance line from the weekly downtrend channel. To see that scenario, currency must not close a daily candle under 1,2450.

    In any case, as you said, bears will regain control of the trend very soon as we're moving in a strong downtrend channel. Especially, if SP500 close today under 1,324 then EURUSD will accelerate its losses.

  2. Yes there is still room for another upside move. If S&P breaks 1324, it will have finished 5 waves down from 1362. This means that a counter trend move will be expected back up towards 1335 at least.

  3. added you to blogroll at HawaiiTrading (Oahutrading)

    NIce Euro chart, matches mine in a way

  4. If a 4hour candle close under 1,2450 the currency will move directly to 1,2300 area. There's the technical and psychological support.