Tuesday, 8 May 2012

Trust the S&P futures or not?

 S&P yesterday gave away mixed signs. If you see the cash price of the index ignoring premarket moves of the future you wouldn't be so worried.  S&P futures moved below april 10 lows at the beginning of the premarket session. Clearly influenced by Greek and French elections, the future moved to 1347 area. During the european session the futures managed to climb more than 10 points and at the US open the index managed to open near its previous close. Looking at the daily chart we see something different and not so bearish. Although the index is below support, it looks like it is still holding and 1357 low of april 10 will be difficult to be broken. I give more possibilities to the scenario that the market will see the lows the futures made early monday. Bears want 1357 broken and bulls still have chances as long as the april lows are holding. For me the fact that the market pulled back in premarket instead of opening with a gap lower is not a bullish signs. As long as the index stays below 1380 we will probably test 1357 and break it with targets 1350 (A=C) and 1310 (A*1,618=C).

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