Sunday, 13 May 2012

Long or short? GOLD and S&P update

Today I chose to post a longer term chart regarding gold. As I mentioned in a previous post last week, a move below 1620-1610could see a push in gold from 60 to 100$ lower. We are probably midway there. However bears should not get carried away. A big triangle coulde be at its latter stages (wave E) and new thrust upwards could be next. The first target for wave E to end is between 1550-1570. If the support at 1550 is broken we could test the lower pitchfork support. However I see this as the least probable scenario. If wave E has completed, then we should be prepared to go long specially if 1650-70 resistance is broken upwards. Concluding, short term bias is still bearish but one should be ready to close and go long as this could reverse to the upwards very soon.

 S&P is trading at an important area of intermediate support. As can be seen in the 10m chart, the move from the lows is choppy and not a clear impulsive one. S&P Friday's high is important short term resistance. 1340 if broken the index could go within 2 days towards 1300. If 1366 is broken then 1380-90 is the next target.

Looking at the 60m chart I notice the following. S&P is still below the middle Keltner channel, and the upward move still doesn't look a clear impulsive one. An hourly close above 1370 can push the index towards 1400. As mentioned in previous posts 1340 is very important support and the index has managed 3 times already to bounce from these levels. The red scenario depicted in the chart shows that 3 waves from the highs of 1422 could already have finished. We coulde very well be in the proscess of small 1-2 waves, that is why 1340 is stop for bulls and 1369-70 for bears, as this could evolve into a new impulsive wave to new highs. There is also the possibility that we are still in a corrective wave after 5 down from 1415 and we may see a C wave up towards 1390-1400.  

Concluding, traders should be aware of the following levels in S&P cash:
  • 1415,
  • 1400
  • 1369-70,
  • 1340
  • 1290

More updates will follow this week in and feel free to contact me at

1 comment:

  1. Hi sir.
    Really never visited this site before really nice.
    Gold update short and Medium term.
    Triangle projection near to be complete at short-term
    Confluence areas.