Thursday, 20 December 2012

Short term bullish trend intact despite yesterday's correction

Although prices opened higher yesterday, the rest of the session was not as bullish as many have expected. SPX as shown in the chart at the left, still trades within the upward sloping trend channel. Prices topped and reversed exactly at the boundaries of the upper channel and may now be heading towards the lower boundaries. The form of the rise, unfortunately for bulls, is not a clear impulsive move. The unfolding waves have an overlapping form but with higher highs and higher lows. The picture is clearer in DJIA.

DJIA has made a new high as expected by our previous analysis in order for the 5 wave form from 12765 to be complete. If trend is bullish and our count correct, then another larger degree 4th wave is expected as shown in the chart on the right jand side. Bulls should start to worry if the dotted trend line is broken downwards and if wave i is overlapped. Having long positions is riskier at this level that a few weeks ago when we first changed to bull again. The sharp decline in metals could be an initial sign that shares could be next.

As always, thank you for taking the time to read my post.

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