Thursday, 8 December 2011

European markets correcting or starting a new downtrend?

Major european indices as shown by the charts, have declined sharply from their highs. However most indices pattern a 3 way decline up to now. Fridays summit and the news from the meeting of european leaders will give the market a lift or a deeper push downwards? 61,8% and/or 50% retracements must hold in order for the bullish scenario to be more strong. Last line of defence for the bulls are the late november lows. If broken......lets not talk about it.....

As mentioned several times this week, the markets were forming a top that after the ECB's president talk, although at first rallied, it reversed very fast that bulls didn't believe what they were seeing. However the mentality of a wave C (this may be the case) is very strong that the previous trend will restart(down). If that is the case then short stops should be placed at the intermediate top or todays high at most markets. Our view that markets have topped and probably for the medium term now looks stronger than when the markets consolidated. Stops should be strictly enforced on our positions....however I feel we are going to see great volatility and unfortunately a steep sell off the comming weeks. I hope I'm proven wrong this time.

No comments:

Post a Comment