Monday, 30 January 2012

Expect the unexpected...MIB and S&P charts....

 MIB is top candidate for having topped. Italian bond yields start rising again, MIB breaks upward sloping trend line. At least a good correction is ahead. Confirmed under 15700.

ES future is testing critical support. This back test may prove dificult for bears to conquer....but is their last chance. This index looks like it has topped but it needs to break lower support levels. Until then a new high cannot be ruled out. S&P spot price should hold 1300 area and prove strength by closing more than once above 1320.

Wednesday, 25 January 2012

S&P and EURUSD will soon start a large decline

 My view is that S&P will soon give a decline of aproximately 70 points at least. New highs around 1340 could be met if 1295-1300 is not broken. I have the feeling that it is rising with less power everyday and that the rise is exhausted. I favor downside moves through 1300 soon.

EURUSD in important resistance.....I favor downside here too with targets below 1.26 . 

Tuesday, 24 January 2012

ES futures critical juncture......

ES futures at critical support....if broken this could mean 1290-80 feasible target....Follow on twitter for more comments @alexanderYf

Monday, 23 January 2012

EURUSD and DAX topping....

 DAX is going to test 6250 support, as a short term top at least has been seen above 6400. This could prove also a medium term top. Trend channel should hold in order to see new highs.
EURUSD still forming the expanding triangle. This inability to break and stay above 1.30 makes me believe that the top is in or has little more upside to give.

Friday, 20 January 2012

EURUSD and the rise over or just started?

 EURUSD hits the red upward channel resistance and pulls back....the green resistance at 1.3080 area is very important for MT. As mentioned earlier this week we could have seen  a triple bottom at 1,2650 area. I think shorting this pair should be done near resistance with carefull stops as this market was under pressure for a long time and may react upwards with great velocity.

MIB has broken above the green triangle and may back test it. 14400 must hold for the market to accelerate upwards.

Thursday, 19 January 2012

S&P will it finally top or not?

What is going on with this market? Are things going to fix themselves in macro level or are we just being fooled? I don't see in macro level that something has changed. European debt crisis is still a worldwide threat (eurusd has fallen sharply the last few weeks) but the markets rally.....I expected to see a top but instead we see new highs....Is it a short squeeze? is it a new upward trend? For one thing I'm sure....I refuse to get long at these levels. At least spx futures will see the lower blue line. Then we will see if I change my mind. Shorting at these levels is at anyones discretion. If I had no position I would sell at these levels of important resistance for spx. 

At any minute we can see the gains from the last 2 weeks being erased in 2-3 days time. Be very carefull if you enter long positions. I expect first stop at 1260 spx and then below 1200. I don't see Prechters scenario for lower lows from 2009 March (yet).

Tuesday, 17 January 2012

SPX, EURUSD,MIB charts...

 SPX still making new highs, has made a three wave decline (corrective) when the downgrades were anounced, but it pulled back up during yesterdays holiday and still rises today. I think this market is topping.
 EURUSD as mentioned on TWITTER has a bearish outlook...the 2-hour bars make me feel bearish, combined with the 61,8% retracement. The whole move looks corrective and I believe it may be over. At least short term I would use todays high as a stop for a short position I just opened.  Longer term the market is still in the downward sloping channel.

MIB hit on the top resistance of the triangle and pulled back. I feel bearish at this point in this index. Euro falls sharply as I write this,spx futures are pulling back and so MIB. The top can be in.

Monday, 16 January 2012

SPX and EURUSD not affected by downgrades.....MIB still in triangle.

 Although SPX broke the rising trend channel on Friday the 13th, today the futures remain calm after the S&P downgrades. SPX could be back testing the broken channel, but this behaviour I think is not what most bears were anticipating. It looks like it is gathering more strength to see new highs above 1300. As I said last week, bulls will not give up easily and are ready not to give up without a good fight....I think this market is topping or has already topped.

 EURUSD remains in its downward sloping trend channel for some time now. It could react and retrace up to 1,2820, but for short to give more money in the near future, the pair should stay below 1,2880. Trend favors short positions and remains in short mode.

MIB is covered again as this index is in the spotlight the last weeks. I believe it is the best shorting candidate. Still in a triangle it must break 14700 and 14400 to increase velocity downwards. Italian spreads after correcting near 460, are looking ready to break the 500 level again (488 now).

Friday, 13 January 2012

S&P, EURUSD and MIB in focus......

 S&P future remains in upward sloping channel. As note in twitter yesterday it did not break support and this could mean a new high today. This whole move could soon be over but with weak macro and the rally still going on the market could surprise us again. Very strong resistance area of 1300-1317. Top picking is not our favorite strategy...better safe than sorry. Breaking the channel would signal us to take short positions.

 EURUSD remains in the downward sloping channel, having a double bottom at 1,2660 area, but in my opinion this move could be a C wave, thus corrective. 1.2930 next resistance and after that 1,3050.

MIB still inside the triangle and reaching the upper side of it. Lets wait and see which side it will break and then take action......

Wednesday, 11 January 2012

MIB at critical impulsive move or end of correction?

Impulsive wave 1 ended near 14400 and now at a three wave rise at 50% retracement. If this is a correction, the market will break 14700 (intermediate low) and then 14400. Above 15400 bears should get nervous. Long stop 14400 medium term, 14700 short term stop for longs. 15600 medium term stop for shorts. Italian spreads above 510. Outlook negative for this market.

EURUSD in correction mode.....

EURUSD still moves in the downward sloping red channel. Pressures in euro are not over yet.

The move from the lows looks corrective, but could still move above 1,28. 

Tuesday, 10 January 2012

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Monday, 9 January 2012


 EURUSD remains in downtrend channel. Stops considered above 1.3050

SPX daily futures graph shows the overthrow we talked about before and although the red resistance is broken, the market looks unable to confirm this break. Dojis mainly visible in spot prices together with a declining eurusd may prove a negative factor for this index the next few days. 1200 could be tested if not lower.

MIB either in a triangle or in a 1-2-i-ii formation. Red support at least should hold. Early warning the break of the green triangle.

Eurostoxx looks corrective and with euro decling I think sooner or later the decline will be all over this index and the rest european indices.

All in all I have negative outlook for stock markets and the euro. I hope I'm proven wrong. Because the decline in the markets will come with very bad news......

Thursday, 5 January 2012

A quick update....

Markets made a strong upward movement at the beginning of the new year, but now they seem to pull back. I was expecting the markets to top last week or at the most to give a final throw off (exhaustion gap up). EURUSD was moving in a corrective manner up to 1.3050 and then markets suddenly remembered again the debt crisis in europe. Now the rest of the markets fall again because of the european debt crisis. Entering long positions is very risky in my humble opinion. I see the downside has more potential and is preferable than betting on the upside.

All in all short positions with a daily close stop above 1283 in SP500 is my preffered strategy. EURUSD still in downward trend....still giving profits. Stops around 1.3050. More to come next week.....

Update 01/06/2012
My stop of 1283 daily close for short positions in spx is very fragile. Personally I believe the markets are topping and it takes time. I have a tolerance level around 1300 but more factors and not only the price of spx will determine if I hold on to my short position. The last 2 months you can see in the blog we made some good profits from forecasting the move in spx and in euro and in other european markets. This makes me more tolerant to sacrifice some winnings in order to support my position. Someone with less tolerance than me to this upward movement should either place a stop at the last high or wait for a clear impulsive down move and short the market at a lower level. Theoretically speaking a double zig zag could have ended or is at its final stages. More details and charts on Monday....have a nice weekend.