MARKET INTERVENTION

Our target from the start of the week was 1225-1250. I did not expect it to be reached so soon and in that way. Whoever did not expect the pullback and bought on monday can now liquidate and be very happy. I looked at the tree and lost the forest. Better luck next time....or will we have a second chance to buy?or is it over? Will update soon!!!!

MIB at the start of a third wave or at the end of a correction?

MIB is at a critical juncture. Either a new impulsive 3rd wave is in its making or a pair of one-twos' is about to end. It came close to overlapping the whole 5-wave upward movement from 13100, but it didn't. These are the most probable scenarios for me and the most simple ones. I like to keep it simple....so lets wait and see....

Pull back started....will you buy??

SPX goes according to our scenario. I see 1170 as the lowest number it can go as a correction. I prefer buying with targets around 1225-1250.

DAX as noted earlier also in my twitter, it probably finished 5 waves up and is correcting. Same pattern as spx. The gap is a possible target. Market opens down, it may pull back up and continue down tonight or tomorrow. Main idea is to be long close to the 61,8% retracement.

Eurusd still below the red trend line. As note on twitter the rise from 1,32 was overlapping and thus not impulsive. I see eurusd lower but not sure if 1,32 will break. It reminds me of how it behaved with 1,3422 area last week. Be carefull with short positions. Using stop orders is best to be safe.

Buy the pullback and target 1225-1250 SP500?

I believe we saw a short term bottom on friday and that an upward movement has already started. I expect all markets tomorrow pull back and provide us with cheaper prices to buy. I have SP500 target between 1225-1250. My scenario will get more possibilities if 1200 is broken and maintained. More detailed work to come soon on this new scenario!

 update 29-11-2011

SPX has found resistance at its previous support 1200. Either way a pull back around 1180-1170 is expected. The decline from october highs still looks a 3-wave correction that ended near 61,8%. Long positions after a correction are favored.

Eurusd is getting closer and closer to the red line resistance. If 1,3280 broken then eur will accelerate downwards and will probably brake 1,32.

 DAX is like SPX. A 3-wave decline from the hghs is not impulsive. Yellow line is low of wave 1 that must not be overlapped if we are in wave 3 down. If overlapped then more scenarios will arise. Dominant scenario still is the A-B-C correction to near 61,8%.

In a few words, for the short term I prefer buying the pullback with a view higher.

Positive start for new week....

 Eurusd starts this week with a mood to reach 1,34. Correction to the decline or the start of a new rise is too early to decide. Time will tell...still eurusd holds under the red line.







DAX is poised for a good reaction upwards.












 SP500 broke short term down channel and is working on a reaction. Our target of 1150 has been fulfilled. Maybe 1150 is medium term bottom and we could see a good upward move. More to come over the next few days.





 MIB holds 13100 and reacts like all the other markets. Long positions should be carefull and with strict stop 13100.





 All markets look like they have bottomed at least for short term. Trend changes to up. Next day or two will show us more info regarding the dynamic of this new trend.

European indices fight to keep their support levels

 MIB

Italian MIB fights the zone 14000 and tries not to get far away from it.....further down movement is bad for the correction scenario and good for the new impulsive move scenario as shown in the chart. If 13090 broken, the correction scenario is invalidated because all 5 waves will be fully retraced.

 DAX has almost the same scenarios as MIB but is further away from 76.4% retracement. If 76.4 % is broken swiftly then the scenario of 1-2-3 downwards will probably prevail.

Eurusd still moves downwards with lower lows and lower highs. The reverse point we discussed at 1.3422 has already given us 100 pips. The pair is still under the red trend line. Its correlation with S&P makes me believe that it has still room to fall. S&P 1150 target we gave last week may be an initial target, and we can probably see that index fall lower. Updates on the S&P  later.

Thanksgiving.....mood

 Good morning all,
todays thanksgiving holiday in the US may give the opportunity to european markets to take a break from the steep decline of the last days.

Dax has found support in the 61,8 % retracement and 5450 must hold for bulls to have a chance of a longer lasting upward move.




EURUSD still stays under the red line mentioned a few days before supporting our bearish view. Lower lows and lower highs maintain downtrend.









MIB

MIB closed yesterday below 14000. Weakness is all over this index like it was last year in Greek FTSE index. This index is a major favorite for short positions. If 14000 is not gained quickly and the index stays below it for some time then things are going to get very ugly in Italy.

Overall, today due to US holiday we may see an upward corrective movement in europe and in eurusd. If not, things are going to get ugly in Friday. Remember our SP500 target of 1150!!!!!

Morning weakness due to Chinese PMI

 DAX broke easily the 61,8% retracement.Next support at 5300 (76,4%).

 MIB 14000 support and 76,4% retracement is the last stand if bulls want to have more chances on their side. If it is broken then the chances diminish. On friday the Italian goverment has auctions. If 7% yield is broken that will be very bad news......for the whole euro area.

SP500 is heading towards our target from last week 1150(61,8%). Todays sharp pre market futures fall due to chinese PMI (factory activity lowest  since March 2009) may escalate to something bigger when the market opens. Short stops would be placed around 1200 capitalising from the sell signal at 1250 area.

EURUSD will soon show the way......

Eurusd again bounced at the red line resistance. 1,3422 is support....the whole formation makes me feel that it is more possible to break down. If broken upwards then the decline from 1,42 WILL look corrective due to the overlaping waves(1,38 must break). If the decline is impulsive then it will accelerate into a couple of third waves. 

DAX and CAC....are they in a correction or face new lows?

 DAX and CAC40 here almost same picture. Must move above green lines in order for this correction(if it is a correction) to end and resume upwards.

61,8% or 5500 DAX is support, 2800 support for CAC (2690 last stand).

My view still remains bearish for all those markets with a possibility of back testing a bit.


Eurusd inability to break 1,3422 may prove supporting for european indices.

EURUSD still holds 1,3422

eurusd is back testing the broken blue line....however, the inability to break 1,3422 is promising a move close to 1,3622 and probably higher. The blue line must be taken over in order for the rise to accelerate. Still 1,3422 remains major support and I believe its a very good reverse point for long positions. There is however an alternate wave count that has 5 waves completed, but the 4th is very small relative to wave 2. This means now that we are now at wave c of 2. 1,3460 important support, almost as imortant as 1,3422.




eurusd has found great resistance at the red line...I believe this line is of great importance. Bulls should be extra careful now. 1,3422 is great reverse point imho.

Indices start early.....

S&P future is breaking 38% retracement of the rise from the 1074 lows. It may not accelerate now until the us market open....european markets on the other hand can't wait until then.

Italian MIB support 14750....although it already looks like 14600 is coming soon. 61,8% retracement important if this down move is just a correction.

Not looking good.....

Good morning to all.....the week starts with a weak euro...As we noted on friday the correction is probably over and the resumption of the downtrend is here.Confirmation under 1,3422.

1,3622 very important and 1,3540 too.

S&P futures trade under 1215 wich support our view from last week for a 'crash' with 1150 target.

EURUSD resumption of trend or still correcting?

is the correction over?eurusd moved up to 50% retracement and fell sharply thereafter....however there is still no clear impulsive move completed. There is a low chance this is a B. I prefer the correction finished and the resumption of the downtrend restarted with targets lower than 1,3422.


Patience is a virtue

SP500 has still room to fall....

sp500 looks like it started a big down move we expected 2 days before with 1150 as an initial target. 1278 and 1265 must not break upwards for the 1150 case to be valid. very critical days ahead.

EURUSD still holding....

Eurusd still moving sideways although spx broke major support 1215(intraday). Today and monday seessions very important. Eur is looking good for a rise above 1,3560 but also vulnerable afer the news on italian and spanish spreads.

1,3420 is a reverse point but early signs of weakness will be the loss of the 1,3466 short term low.

eurusd flat movement

most possible this sideways movement is a correction that will lead lower below 1,3422

if green line broken then 1,3622 is the target

Markets on the edge of the cliff....

eurusd looks quite ugly like every past session....early morning low of 1.3420 very possible to be revisited unless 1,3560 broken upwards....pressure to move from there to major european indices!!!

 dax is vulnerable due to euro weakness and 5850 major support is what we are interested in today. Due to the break of 1140 of spx, I believe dax sooner or later will break this support.

A new beginning!!!

So lets get started...!!!will the S&P crash the next few days or not?feeling bearish or bullish?