EURUSD and GBPUSD under pressure

 USD is getting stronger against EUR and GBP. Fears in eurozone influenced by the Greek election results, push EURUSD below our important neckline. This is very bearish for the pair targeting prices towards the lows of January.

GBPUSD bullish wave count as posted a few weeks ago might be in danger as USD gains ground. My wave 1 is at 1,6062 so the expected wave 4 should not overlap this price level.

National Bank of Greece

NBG is considered the biggest bank in Greece. However with the greek debt crisis, it did not survive the big sell off in banks during the last 3 years. The January-February rally from 1,30 to 3,10 was taken all back.

From a technical point of view the trend is bearish both short and long term. Although the two month rally was with increased volume, the stock managed to pull back to its lows once more, amidst goverment uncertainty and fears of collapse. For now we  just want to see it rise above 1,60 for an initial sign of short term trend change. Next big resitance is the high at 2,14. The market may continue to slide towards 1,30 or even lower. Since this market is so much pressured, I believe the best strategy is to stay aside or make only intraday trades when possible. The slightest 'good' news could make this stock fly like a rocket. So better safe than sorry.

Bearish wave counts in DAX and S&P

 DAX needs to overcome 6600 to stop short term downward pressures. 6700 is next resistance as 61,8% retracement [possible wave (ii)].

S&P still under pressure below my support line. As mentioned yesterday evening late update, bears are not going to give up easy. The longer the index remains below 1390-80 the more chances it has to go to 1310. 5 waves have been completed in S&P cash. The wave count in futures is not so clear. So we could have seen yesterday wave A (1347-1363). Today we may experience wave B down and then a wave C up towards 1380. As time passes one or the other scenario will gain more chances. Until then 1415 is for sure the bears stop.

Bullish signs at 1340 S&P

8/5/2012 Market close update

• 3 Waves down from highs. 
• Wave A=C
• Down moves not clear impulsive waves

So now what? S&P each time it reached 1340, during premarket on Monday and during market hours today, it managed both times to pull back up towards 1360. If this is not a bullish sign what is? Of course we will confirm this above wave B top and by seeing 5 clear waves up, but for now....bears are loosing the battle. So it seems that we are in a correction for more than a month and we should expect the market to run higher after this correction has ended. Lets not be hasty though....The correction could take more complex forms and take even more time. We should be waiting to see 5 waves up before reaching any conclusions that this move is over. Bears are on the lookout ready to give another push towards 1340 and lower. Next target is 1302 in S&P futures, if bears come back stronger. For now...todays low should be an important stop for bulls.

Will gold continue sideways?

Gold continues to move sideways. Short term levels that are important are 1670-80 and 1610-1600. If any of those two broken, I think volatility will increase and a 60-100$ move will at least take place. The triangle is getting smaller day by day....